Canada’s Express Entry system has long been a cornerstone for skilled immigrants seeking permanent residence. One of its key features—the bonus CRS points for arranged employment (valid job offers supported by an LMIA)—has suddenly been removed as of March 25, 2025. In this post, we explore whether the removal will lower the CRS cutoff, and how this might affect candidates’ chances, and we include some mathematical analysis to predict potential trends.

Understanding Express Entry and the CRS

Express Entry ranks candidates using the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) which awards points in several categories:

• Core Human Capital: Age, education, language proficiency, and Canadian work experience.
• Skill Transferability Factors: Combination of foreign work experience with language and education.
• Additional Factors: These include bonus points for arranged employment, French proficiency, and more.

Until now, candidates could earn an extra 50 or even 200 points if they had a valid job offer backed by an LMIA. For many, this bonus often made the difference between receiving an Invitation to Apply (ITA) or missing out entirely.

What Changed—and Why?

Effective March 25, 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has eliminated the bonus CRS points for arranged employment. This decision aims to:

• Combat Fraud: There had been concerns about the illegal buying or manipulation of LMIA-backed job offers.
• Increase Fairness: Removing bonus points forces candidates to rely on core factors (like language, education, and work experience) to boost their score.

For example, if a candidate previously had a CRS score of 540 (including a 50-point job offer bonus), their adjusted score will now be 490.

The Direct Impact on Candidate Profiles

Let’s consider two hypothetical candidates:

• Andrew: Originally scored 540 because he had a valid job offer (+50 points).
• Anita: Without a job offer, scores 500.

Before removal:
• Andrew’s 540 beats Anita’s 500.

After removal:
• Andrew loses 50 points → 490, while Anita remains at 500.

In this example, Andrew’s relative advantage disappears. If draws are based on ranking, such a shift can significantly change who gets invited.

Considering Distribution Effects

Looking at a sample distribution from CanadaVisa data:

• 501–600: 23,165 candidates
• 451–500: 68,910 candidates

Many candidates originally in the 520–600 range who benefited from bonus points will now drop into the 470–550 range. In draws where a fixed number of top candidates (e.g., 4,000 ITAs) are invited, even a 15–20 point shift in the overall pool could push the cutoff downward significantly. In our earlier example with Andrew and Anita, a candidate’s rank can be altered by a full bonus value (50 points), not just the average drop.

Predicting the New Cutoff

Based on current trends:

• Recent Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws have had cutoffs of around 521.
• If many candidates with LMIA bonuses see their scores reduced by 50 points, those originally scoring in the 520–570 range might now fall to 470–520.

Optimistic Scenario:
If the LMIA bonus removal affects a large number of candidates and if the draw sizes remain constant or even increase to clear out the backlog, the CRS cutoff might drop below 500 as soon as late spring or early summer 2025.

Conservative Estimate:
It might take until mid to late summer 2025 for the system to stabilize and for draws to consistently reflect a cutoff below 500, as candidates adjust their profiles by improving language tests or gaining more work experience.

Given an old cutoff of 521 and an average drop of 15 points, a first approximation is 506. However, because many top-ranking candidates may lose the bonus entirely, the effective cutoff could drop further—potentially into the 490–500 range.

Strategic Implications for Applicants

In light of these predictions and calculations, candidates should consider the following strategies:

1. Enhance Language Proficiency:
   Retaking language tests to achieve higher scores (e.g., aiming for CLB 9 or above) can yield significant point gains. Since language skills are weighted heavily, even a 5–10 point improvement per section can help offset the loss.
2. Bolster Work Experience:
   Accumulating additional skilled work experience—especially Canadian work experience—can directly boost your score. For instance, each additional year of Canadian experience can add crucial points.
3. Invest in Further Education:
   A Canadian degree or diploma can increase both core and bonus points. If you’ve earned an Educational Credential Assessment (ECA) for foreign credentials, ensure that it’s up-to-date.
4. Explore Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP):
   Securing a provincial nomination awards a massive 600 points, almost guaranteeing an ITA regardless of the cutoff.
5. Optimize Your Profile:
   If applying with a spouse, compare profiles. Sometimes, switching the principal applicant role to the partner with higher language or education scores can make a significant difference.

Final Thoughts & Prediction

While predicting the exact CRS cutoff is challenging—given variables like draw frequency, pool composition, and policy adjustments—the analysis suggests that the removal of LMIA bonus points will likely lower the cutoff by roughly 15–20 points on average. In practical terms, this may push the cutoff below 500 in the near future, possibly as early as late spring 2025 in an optimistic scenario, or mid to late summer 2025 under conservative estimates.

The key takeaway is that candidates who previously relied on LMIA points now need to re-focus their efforts on core factors like language, education, and work experience. Staying informed of draw trends and IRCC updates will be crucial for adapting your strategy in this evolving immigration landscape.

How ICC Immigration Can Help You Secure Your Future in Canada

ICC Immigration is committed to helping you explore the best options for your long-term success in Canada. Our experienced team will assess your situation and guide you through the most appropriate PR programs, helping you avoid the risks associated with asylum claims.

We provide the following services:

• Permanent Residency Applications: Whether through Express Entry, Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs), or other pathways, we ensure that your PR application is processed smoothly and efficiently.
• Work Permits and Study Permits: We help you explore temporary options to establish your career or education in Canada, eventually leading to a PR application.
• Family Sponsorships: If you have family members in Canada, we can help you reunite with them and secure your PR status.
• Expert Legal Advice: Understanding Canada’s immigration policies can be complex. We offer professional legal guidance to ensure your application complies with current regulations and maximizes your chances of success.

Instead of relying on the uncertainty of asylum, take control of your future by choosing a pathway that offers stability, security, and a clear path to Permanent Residency in Canada. ICC Immigration is here to help you every step of the way.

By understanding the mathematics behind the score adjustments and staying proactive in enhancing your profile, you can navigate these changes with confidence. Although the removal of LMIA bonus points poses challenges, it also creates opportunities for those who strengthen their core qualifications—ensuring that your Canadian dream is still within reach.