Canada has experienced a notable population decrease in the third quarter of 2025, according to preliminary data from Statistics Canada. Between July 1 and October 1, 2025, the country’s population declined by 76,068 people (-0.2%), marking the first population decrease in a single quarter this year. This shift is primarily driven by a reduction in non-permanent residents, highlighting the impact of recent federal immigration policy changes.

Understanding the Population Decline

Statistics Canada attributes the decline mainly to a drop in non-permanent residents (NPRs), which fell by 176,479 in Q3 2025. This represents the largest quarterly decrease since records began in 1971. By October 1, 2025, the number of NPRs dropped from 3,024,216 (7.3% of the population) to 2,847,737 (6.8% of the population).

The decline stems from record-high outflows of temporary residents, including study permit and work permit holders, outpacing new inflows. Notably:

• Study permit holders only declined by 73,682, with Ontario (-47,511) and British Columbia (-14,291) seeing the largest drops.

• Work and study permit holders decreased by 67,616.

• Work permit holders only fell by 35,231.

At the same time, asylum claimants and protected persons continued to rise, reaching a record 504,767, though their quarterly growth was smaller than in previous years.

Permanent Immigration Remains Steady

Despite the temporary resident decline, permanent immigration continued at a steady pace. Canada welcomed 102,867 permanent residents in Q3 2025, aligning with the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan. This indicates that Canada is still committed to long-term population growth through permanent immigration, even as temporary resident numbers are intentionally reduced.

Policy Changes Driving the NPR Decline

Several recent federal immigration policies have contributed to the decrease in temporary residents:

1. Moratorium on low-wage LMIAs: Low-wage Labour Market Impact Assessments submitted after September 26, 2024, are not processed in regions with high unemployment. This restricts new work permit issuance.

2. Spousal open work permit restrictions: Only spouses of select skilled workers and international students are eligible, with additional requirements based on occupation and program type.

3. Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) changes: Language proficiency and field-of-study requirements now apply to graduates who submitted study permits after November 1, 2024.

4. Study permit caps: A limit of 437,000 study permits will be issued in 2025, down from previous years’ numbers.

The federal government aims to reduce temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population by 2027, reflecting a long-term strategy to balance labor market needs and population growth.

Implications for Prospective Immigrants

These policy changes mean that Canada’s temporary resident programs are becoming more selective, particularly for study and work permits. While temporary immigration has slowed, opportunities remain for those seeking Permanent Residency (PR) through structured pathways such as Express Entry, Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs), and family sponsorships.

This is where ICC Immigration can help you secure your future in Canada. With the right guidance, you can navigate the complex immigration landscape, avoid pitfalls, and pursue a stable path to Permanent Residency rather than relying on uncertain asylum options.

How ICC Immigration Supports Your Canadian Immigration Goals

• Permanent Residency Applications: We assist with Express Entry, PNPs, and other PR pathways to ensure smooth processing and maximum success.

• Work Permits and Study Permits: Our experts guide you in obtaining temporary permits to build your career or education in Canada, paving the way for PR.

• Family Sponsorships: Reunite with loved ones through family sponsorship programs while securing permanent residency.

• Expert Legal Advice: Immigration regulations are complex. ICC Immigration provides professional guidance to ensure compliance and improve your chances of approval.

Instead of facing uncertainty, ICC Immigration helps you take control of your future with a clear, reliable pathway to Canadian PR. Whether you’re already in Canada or planning your immigration journey, our team provides the expert advice, support, and strategy needed for a successful application.

Conclusion

Canada’s population contraction in Q3 2025 highlights a significant shift in temporary immigration policies, driven by efforts to reduce the number of non-permanent residents. While study and work permit numbers are declining, permanent immigration continues to grow steadily, providing opportunities for those looking to immigrate and settle in Canada permanently.

With the right guidance from ICC Immigration, you can navigate these changing policies confidently, secure your Permanent Residency, and build a stable future in Canada. Avoid the risks of uncertain asylum claims and choose a pathway that offers clarity, security, and long-term success.